Sunday, February 5, 2012

GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK


                                         Gold Weekly Technical Outlook                                                    
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rose further to as high as 1765.6 last week but lost momentum and retreated sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But near term outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 1703.0 support holds. Rise from 1523.9 is expected to continue further to 1804.4 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that whole correction from 1923.7 has completed with three waves down to 1523.9. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to retest 1923.7 and above. However, note that break of 1703.0 support will argue that rebound from 1523.9 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for this support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions form 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern only. Current development is slightly favoring the case that such consolidation is finished with three waves down to 1523.9. Sustained trading above 55 days EMA affirms this case. Further break of 1804.4 will indicate that the long term up trend is resuming for another high above 1923.7. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contain downside to finish the consolidation and bring up trend resumption eventually.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run....


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