Sunday, February 5, 2012

SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK


                                             Silver Weekly Technical Outlook                                                       
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally from 26.145 extended further to as high as 34.41 last week. Upside momentum was unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But with 32.93 support intact, another rally is still mildly in favor. Above 34.41 will target 35.70 key resistance next. However, break of 32.93 will argue that rise from 26.145 is finished already and should flip bias back to the downside for this support instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we're treating price actions from 26.15 as consolidation in the larger decline from 49.82 high. That is, rise from 26.145 is the third wave and should be limited by 35.70 resistance and bring reversal for a new low below 26.145. However, decisive break of 35.70 will indicate bottoming, with a double bottom reversal pattern, and turn focus back to 40 psychological level.
In the long term picture, the main question remains on whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is starting to favor the latter case. Though, we'd prefer to see sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm
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